Oil could drop another $15 from here: Analyst

Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere

8 Hours AgoCNBC.co

The plunge in oil prices is "completely disconnected" from what makes any sense economically, and there's no telling how low crude can go, an influential analyst told CNBC on Tuesday.

Stephen Schork, founder and editor of The Schork Report newsletter, said he had thought last month that the $70 to $75 a barrel price range for oil in the U.S. would hold. "It did not," he added in a "Squawk Box" interview. "As soon as it broke, I had to position myself for lower prices. And I'm still positioning for lower prices."

"How low can we go? We are beyond the point of economics … completely disconnected from that because as we've seen with the ruble and as we've seen with the demand issues elsewhere, there's no telling," Schork said, putting the next target for WTI crude at $52 and the one below that at $42. "Will we get there? Absolutely."

Read MoreOil floor? Mid-$50s should do it: Ex-Gulf Oil CEO

Oil prices continued lower in early trading Tuesday, with U.S. crude hitting lows of about $54 not seen since early May 2009, as global currency turmoil and slowing Chinese factory activity added to concerns about demand. In mid-June, oil settled at a high of $106.86 a barrel.

"What is this price decline telling us? Commodity prices don't drive economies. economies drive commodity prices," Schork said. "The United States is the only shining light out there economically. But with a rising dollar at a five-year high ... who are we going to sell our manufacturing exports to?"

"No one can tell you where this [oil] market is going," he continued. "It could have already bottomed or we could still be heading another $15. And that's the scary thing about this. This is 2009 all over again."

Pavel Molchanov, oil analyst at Raymond James, described what happened then and how it relates to current conditions. "As we saw at the beginning of 2009 when oil very briefly touched $30—near-term [here] anything can happen—but let's remember 2009 prices bounced to $60 within a couple of weeks."

The plunge in crude has wreaked havoc on the Russia's oil-dependent economy and in turn its currency, which continued to collapse despite the central bank there hiking interest rates by 6.5 percentage points to 17 percent. The ruble sank as much as 18 percent early Tuesday after suffering its worst session in 15 years on Monday. The Russian stock market also dropped sharply in dollar terms Tuesday. But with the depreciation of the ruble, Russian stocks were higher in ruble terms.

Read MoreNothingRussia can do for ruble if oil falls: Pro

"Forty dollar oil would be lethal to a lot players in the global oil industry in the United States, in Canada, in Brazil, in Russia, and frankly more than half the OPEC countries," Molchanov said. That's why he feels that prices cannot stay at $60 a barrel on a permanent basis. He added that he sees oil in the "bottoming process" right now.

THE ENGINEERED FALL OF THE RUSSIAN RUBLE

THE ENGINEERED FALL OF THE RUSSIAN RUBLE

Financial elite are trying to destroy Russia and foment a color revolution

by KURT NIMMO | INFOWARS.COM | DECEMBER 16, 2014

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Saudi Arabia, the most influential member of OPEC, and the United States are working together to destroy the Russian economy and destabilize the country.

Russia Struggles to Contain Damage as Oil Prices Slide

Despite the best efforts of the Russian central bank, the ruble is experiencing a dramatic fall. “We are seeing an economic crisis,” Natalia V. Akindinova, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, told the New York Times on Tuesday. “We are seeing a sharp devaluation of the ruble at a time when the central bank doesn’t have the reserves to influence the market, as it did in the past crises.”

“Russia’s economy is terribly dependent on oil: if the oil price falls so low, severe economic recession is inevitable and default becomes a real possibility,” writes Frances Coppola for Forbes.

The Russian Central bank figured it could ride out the storm created by falling oil prices, but its efforts have proven insufficient.

“Responding to recent oil price falls, it floated the ruble and allowed it to fall in line with the oil price, intervening only to smooth out sharp price fluctuations. It hiked interest rates to counter domestic inflation despite the weakness of the Russian economy, due (in part) to Western sanctions,” Coppola explains.

The ruble crisis prompted currency brokers to dump the ruble, further escalating the situation.

“Earlier, we reported that various currency brokers such as FXCM and FxPro, would – as a result of the soaring liquidity in the USDRUB pair – suspend trading in the Russian Ruble (while other merely hiked margins to ridiculous levels). It appears things have escalated again, and as FXCM just reported, instead of just politely advising clients not to open new USDRUB position tomorrow, it has advised anyone long, or short, the USDRUB that their positions will be forcibly shut in moments,”Zero Hedge reports.

“Scenes that Russians hoped had receded into the past reappeared on the streets,” the Time reports today. “Currency exchange signs blinked ever-changing digits. Russians rushed to appliance stores to buy washing machines or televisions to unload rubles. Unsure of prices, car dealerships like Volvo in Russia halted business, while Apple stopped online sales in the country.”

Financial Class Using Oil Weapon to Tame Russia

The economic war waged against Russia by the financial elite and their partners is having a concrete and catastrophic effect.

“In recent developments, it became clear that economic warfare is the main weapon used by the Transnational Elite, (TE- i.e. the network of the elites based mainly in the G7 countries which run the New World Order of neoliberal globalization), to subordinate Russia and integrate every other country still resisting the process, e.g. Iran and Venezuela,” writes Takis Fotopoulos.

It is not happenstance that Ali bin Ibrahim al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Petroleum & Natural Resources, and the most influential voice within OPEC, decided to set in motion the price free fall now battering the Russian economy.

The establishment media declares the effort is a bid to win back market share, but this is little more than a cover story.

In fact, the manipulation of oil prices is an effort to destroy the Russian economy and set the stage for yet another Soros-esque velvet revolution.

It is worth quoting Fotopoulos at length:

It is therefore clear that Saudi Arabia’s action in precipitating the dramatic fall in the price of oil was far from accidental. Furthermore, it was hardly motivated by a Saudi attempt to keep its dominant share in the oil market, supposedly threatened by the US shale oil production. This explanation, given by the ‘globalist’ faction within the Russian elite and the liberal “Left” in the West, was in fact an alibi used by the TE itself and the Saudis in order to disguise the real aim of this action. That is, the use of the price of oil as a highly effective weapon of economic warfare in order to force Russia and associate resisting regimes (like Iran and Venezuela) either to submit to the TE rule, or face a possibly severe economic recession (depending on how long the price of oil will be kept at very low levels) which could well lead to ‘velvet revolutions’ in all these countries and, possibly, to regime changes.

The financial media admits as much:

“Among vulnerable producers are regimes that one would dearly like to see weakened, Vladimir Putin’s Russia foremost among them,” writes Martin Wolf for the Financial Times.

Wolf notes that oil played an instrumental role in taking out the Soviet Union. “The story this time is not so different,” he writes. He applauds the possibility oil may once again undermine Russia and make it subservient to the whims of Wall Street and the banksters.

Russia: the Military Option

There is, however, a caveat that will undoubtedly complicate the effort — Russia’s determination to upgrade its military in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine and moves by NATO and the West to aggressively militarize Eastern Europe.

In November, Michael Snyder wrote about the Russian military and its recent technological developments and how it is preparing for a showdown with the West, including the possibility of nuclear war.

Russia is a vastly different country than it was under a fossilized and atrophied Soviet Union. The question is: will it take engineered economic warfare and the possibility of its destruction in stride, or will it respond militarily?

Russian Ruble Freefall: 17% interest rate hike fails to stem currency co...

Amazon sellers hit by nightmare before Christmas as glitch cuts prices to 1p

Amazon sellers hit by nightmare before Christmas as glitch cuts prices to 1p
Small businesses count cost of error in RepricerExpress software that resulted in thousands of items going for a song

 Boxes of goods at an Amazon warehouse. Photograph: Graeme Robertson for the Guardian


Rupert Neate
Sunday 14 December 2014 13.11 EST

There were Christmas shopping bargains galore on Amazon’s website over the weekend … for about an hour. Because of a technical glitch, the prices of thousands of items crashed to 1p – giving eagle-eyed customers a pre-Christmas treat while leaving scores of small family-owned businesses nursing heavy losses, with some warning they could enter the new year on the brink of bankruptcy.

From 7-8pm on Friday, software used by third-party sellers to ensure their products are the cheapest on the market went a bit haywire and reduced prices to as little as 1p. “Amazon is all kinds of broken,” one observer tweeted. “Mattress 1p. Heaphones 1p. Batteries, clothing, games all 1p. Someone messed up big time.”

Martin Le Corre, who sells toys and games via his MB Homewares store on Amazon, told the Guardian that the glitch in software developed by RepricerExpress could have cost him more than £100,000.

“We got a call from a competitor to say ‘do you realise all your listings at a penny?’ By the end of the hour, we had 1,600 orders,” he said. “People were buying 10, 50, 100 copies of everything. It is £50,000, £60,000, £100,000 of stock; we can’t even work it out.”

Le Corre immediately took his store offline, but more than £30,000 worth of orders had already been marked as dispatched by Amazon. Orders that have already been dispatched cannot be cancelled and shoppers will be able to keep the goods.

Amazon is working to cancel orders that have not been dispatched, but sellers complain that cancelling orders is ruining their seller ratings on the site.

Le Corre, who spent the weekend stock-checking in the company’s warehouse, said one buyer bought 95 boardgames that should have cost £12.99 each for 99p each.

“I’m kind of wishing I was on the other side of this,” he said. Earlier on Friday, Le Corre’s house purchase had fallen through. “We were a bit upset so we said ‘let’s relax and watch the telly and get a takeaway’. A few minutes later the phone rang to tell us 300 lines of stock had been reduced to 1p.”

Another seller affected, Judith Blackford, of the fancy dress company Kiddymania, said: “I have lost about £20,000 overnight. Having asked Amazon to cancel the orders they are still sending them out and charging me horrendous fees. Surely someone has to be accountable for this. I will be bankrupt at this rate by the end of January.”

Meanwhile, buyers were having a field day. Quirky Jezza tweeted: “I’ve just spend 80p on Amazon … for a few thousand pounds value … Loads of things are 1p … Hacked? xD. All of that in the last hour. I’ve ordered about 500 things in total tonight. I would laugh if any of them arrive :o”

Sellers rounded on RepricerExpress, whose website boasts that it provides “the ridiculously simple way to increase your Amazon holiday sales”.

Stuart Cameron said on RepricerExpress’s web forum that his entire inventory had been sold for 1p in less than two hours. “Heads are going to roll,” he wrote. “Solicitor first thing Monday morning. This has just cost me thousands and now we have to stock-check my entire warehouse.”

The chief executive of the Derry-based RepricerExpress, Brendan Doherty, apologised to his customers and said everyone at the company was devastated by the mistake.

He said: “I am truly sorry for the distress this has caused our customers. We understand that you are angry and upset and we will endeavour to work to make good on this issue and to work to restore your confidence in our product and service.”

An Amazon spokesman said: “We responded quickly and were able to cancel the vast majority of orders placed on these affected items immediately and no costs or fees will be incurred by sellers for these cancelled orders.

“We are now reviewing the small number of orders that were processed and will be reaching out to any affected sellers directly.”

Neil Saunders, the managing director of Conlumino, a retail research agency, said: “The situation demonstrates the dangers of relying on automated software to determine pricing. Coming at one of the busiest times of the year, it could have a catastrophic impact on the profits of those affected. Confidence in this pricing system will now be severely undermined.”

Russian Rouble falls after interest rate raised from 9.5% to 10.5% on Dec. 11th. Lost 40% of value already.

New Zealand Dollar, and THE VERY FAT FINGER TRADE!

Math of my first 2 practice Forex trades

Canadian trade calculations when the graph was spiraling up: BUY trade on USD/CAD

$300,000 (USD) x 1.14360 = $343,080 (CAD)

$343,080 (CAD) / 1.13960 (-40 pips) = $301,053.00 (USD)

$300,000 (USD) - $301,053 (USD) = -$1,053 (USD)

$343,080 (CAD) / 1.15560 (+120 pips) = $296,884.7352 (USD)

$300,000 (USD) - $296,884.74 (USD) = $3,115.26 (USD)

$3,115.26 / $1,053 = 2.958x

Margin was $6000 (50:1)

New Zealand trade calculations when the graph was spiraling down: SELL trade on NZD/USD:

-$301,000 (NZD) x 0.76288 = -$229,626.88 (USD)

-$229,626.88 (USD) / 0.76688 (+40 pips) = -$299,430.00 (NZD)

-$301,000 (NZD) + $299,430 (NZD) = -$1570 (NZD)

-$1570 (NZD) x 0.76688 = -$1204.00 (USD)

-$229,626.88 (USD) / 0.75088 (-120 pips) = -$305,810.36 (NZD)

-$301,000 (NZD) + $305,810.36 (NZD) = +$4,810.36 (NZD)

+$4,810.36 (NZD) x 0.75088 = $3612.00 (USD)

$3612 / $1204 = 3.0

Margin was $4,592.54 ($229,626.88 (USD) / 50)

I lost both trades because the direction reversed on me immediately.

Ever needed more than 4GB pagefile on a 32 bit machine? Split pagefile among 2 HDD.

To create multiple paging files http://support.microsoft.com/kb/237740

Try the below its not mentioned in the KB article but still its worth trying it...

1. On the drive or volume you want to hold the paging files, create folders for the number of paging files you want to create on the volume. For example, C:\Pagefile1, D:\Pagefile2, and E:\Pagefile3.
2. Click Start, Click Run, type regedit in the Open box, and then click OK.
3. In the left pane, locate and click the following registry subkey:
   HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\System\CurrentControlSet\Control\SessionManager\MemoryManagement
4. Find the Pagingfiles value, and then double-click it to open it.
5. Remove any existing values, and add the following values:
   c:\pagefile1\pagefile.sys 3000 4000
   D:\pagefile2\pagefile.sys 3000 4000
   E:\pagefile3\Pagefile.sys 3000 4000
6. Click OK, and then quit Registry Editor.
7. Restart the computer to cause the changes to take effect.
8. Access the virtual memory settings to check the properties of the paging file. To do this, follow these steps.

From the article, split is actually helpful if your 2 disks have the same speed:

If you have multiple hard disks, splitting up the paging file is a good idea, as it will speed up the access time. If you have two hard disks, and you split the paging file, both hard disks can be accessing information simultaneously, greatly increasing the throughput. However, if you have two hard disks, and one hard disk is faster than the other, it may be more effective to store the paging file on only the faster hard disk. Some experimentation may be necessary to arrive at the best configuration for your system. 

********

Ever needed more than 4GB pagefile on a 32 bit machine?

With the default pagefile set at - either 2GB or 1.5 x RAM for machines with RAM under 2GB
or....for machines over 2GB the page file will be set for 2GB.

Now more and more in large systems I'm seeing the need to increase this pagefile to over 2GB.

Problem - 32-bit Windows 2000/2003 can only address 4GB (as RAM) for a Pagefile.

In this particular case I have 10 biztalk host instances running on a heavily loaded machine.
The machine is 32bit (with the prospect of going 64bit in the medium future) and we need to prove the solution to the business.
(i.e volume, load, uptime etc.)

While looking at trying to expand the pagefile (I'm assuming it's not all being used, but during 'busy' times, I'd like to have a bit extra if needed)
I came across the limitation of 4GB - makes sense when you think about it. A memory mapped file, living on the disk.

Here's some handy registry settings for giving you more!!!!

Detroit Shuts Off Water To Thousands Of Broke Residents

BY ALAN PYKE JUNE 20, 2014 AT 3:06 PM UPDATED: JUNE 23, 2014 AT 9:51 AM

"Detroit Shuts Off Water To Thousands Of Broke Residents"

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CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK

As the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department moves to shut off water to thousands of residents who are delinquent on their bills, a coalition of activists is appealing to the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights to intervene on behalf of the bankrupt city’s most vulnerable citizens.

Their report, filed Wednesday with the UN’s Special Rapporteur on the Human Right to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation, alleges that the DWSD crackdown is part of an effort “to sweeten the pot for a private investor” to take over the city’s heavily-indebted water and sewer system as part of Detroit’s broader bankruptcy proceedings.

One of the activist groups behind the report, the Detroit People’s Water Board, notes that city residents have seen water rates more than double over the past decade at the same time that the city’s poverty rate rose to nearly 40 percent, putting the cost of basic running water beyond reach for tens of thousands of households. Earlier this week, city lawmakers voted to raise water rates by a further 8.7 percent.

Almost exactly 50 percent of the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department’s 323,900 total accounts were delinquent as of March, according to the Detroit News (via Nexis), with a combined $175 million in unpaid water bills outstanding. The department announced at that time that it would begin an aggressive campaign of water shutoffs, and a DWSD spokesman said that it has shut off water to nearly 7,000 separate clients since the beginning of April. DWSD mailed warnings about the shutoffs in March, but the People’s Water Board report says that some residents it interviewed either never received a warning notice or had their water shut off before the payment deadline printed in the notices had passed.

One key piece of the activists’ complaint has to do with allegedly disparate treatment of residential and commercial clients by the DWSD. The People’s Water Board claims that delinquent business entities “have not been targeted in the same way as residential users,” a claim the department strongly disputes.

“There are no sacred cows. We aren’t discriminating in terms of individuals or businesses,” DWSD spokesman Bill Johnson said in an interview. “Last month we shut off about 3,600 accounts, both businesses and residential. Everybody is getting cut off who is $150 or 60 days in arrears. That is our policy and we’re ramping up our enforcement of that policy.”

The department has not yet had time to break out the data on water shutoffs by client category, Johnson said, but he hopes to be able to report exact figures on the number of business clients who have lost water access soon.

The DWSD’s roughly $5 billion in debts have turned out to be the most difficult piece of Detroit’s bankruptcy, after initially seeming to be on track for a rapid resolution.Neighboring counties have balked at absorbing the city system into a regional water and sewer authority, and subsequent plans to privatize the city’s water services have beencriticized as too rapid, too costly, and too damaging to residents’ quality of life. The system’s massive backlog of delinquent bills makes it harder to convince anyone, whether private company or public authority, to shoulder the DWSD’s obligations. But if the water shutoffs were aimed at making the department look like a shinier prize in bankruptcy negotiations, they would likely be targeted at corporate clients directly, for the same reason that Depression-era gangsters robbed banks: that’s where the money is.

While the vast majority of the nearly 165,000 delinquent accounts reported in March are residential clients, those private households owe much smaller amounts than the commercial and industrial clients who are delinquent on their DWSD bills. Fewer than 11,000 delinquent accounts relate to commercial or industrial clients. But those delinquencies average more than $7,700 per business, according to the numbers published in the Detroit News in March, compared to an average debt of less than $600 per residential delinquency. Non-residential clients account for almost half of what DWSD is owed despite being less than 7 percent of total delinquencies, according to the March figures. The People’s Water Board obtained a document with more recent figures which shows a similar distribution of the delinquencies but lower total debts to DWSD as of May.

“We are asking the UN special rapporteur to make clear to the U.S. government that it has violated the human right to water,” said Maude Barlow, the National Chairperson of the Council of Canadians and a key member of the coalition that put the report together. In addition to creating international pressure to stop the Detroit shutoffs, Barlow said, the UN’s intervention could lead to formal consequences for the United States. “If the US government does not respond appropriately this will also impact their Universal Periodic Review,” she said, “when they stand before the Human Rights Council to have their [human rights] record evaluated.” A request for comment from the UN official to whom the report was submitted went unanswered.

Groups Appeal To UN to Stop Water Cut Offs In Detroit And Restore Basic Human Rights

Over the last decade, Detroit residents have seen water rates rise by 119 percent. With unemployment rates at a record high and the poverty rate at about 40 percent, Detroit water bills are unaffordable to a significant portion of the population.

By Eco Watch | June 19, 2014

• 
• 

• 

A neighborhood in Detroit, MI. (AP/Paul Sancya)

In March 2014, the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD) announced it would begin shutting off water service for 1,500 to 3,000 customers every week if their water bills were not paid, and yesterday, the city council approved an 8.7 percent water rate increase. According to a recent DWSD document, more than 80,000 residential households are in arrears. With thousands of families now without water, and thousands more expected to lose access at any moment, a group of concerned organizations have submitted a report to Catarina de Albuquerque, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Right to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation, urging authorities to take immediate action to restore water services and stop further cut-offs. The report was released by the Detroit People’s Water Board, the Blue Planet Project, the Michigan Welfare Rights Organization and Food & Water Watch.

“By denying water service to thousands, Detroit is violating the human right to water,” said Blue Planet Project Founder and Food & Water Watch Board Chair Maude Barlow. “After decades of policies that put businesses and profits ahead of the public good, the city now has a major crisis on its hands. It is shocking and abominable that anyone would be subjected to these conditions.”

Over the last decade, Detroit residents have seen water rates rise by 119 percent. With unemployment rates at a record high and the poverty rate at about 40 percent, Detroit water bills are unaffordable to a significant portion of the population. Many of those affected by the shut-offs were given no warning. The infirm have been left without water and functioning toilets, children cannot bathe and parents cannot adequately prepare food for their families.

“When delinquent corporate water lines are still running without collection of funds, it demonstrates a level of intentional disparity that devalues the lives of the people struggling financially. Where is our compassion? Where is our humanity?” asked Lila Cabbil, President Emeritus of the Rosa Parks Institute.

In 2013, Detroit declared bankruptcy and appointed Kevyn Orr as emergency manager, giving him a mandate to get the city back on its feet financially. Orr has since taken steps to privatize the DWSD, and many now believe that the water shut-offs are an attempt to appeal to potential investors. In the Great Lakes region, large, private water companies charge households on average more than twice as much as rates charged by comparable publicly-controlled systems. Moreover, private operation has been linked to poor service, workforce reductions, maintenance backlogs, water leaks and sewage spills.

The groups make the following recommendations:

1. We call on the state of Michigan and the U.S. government to respect the human right to water and sanitation.

2. We call on the city to restore services to households that have been cut off immediately.

3. We call on the city to abandon its plan for further cut-offs.

4. We call on the federal and state governments to work with the city to ensure a sustainable public financing plan and rate structure that would prevent a transfer of the utility’s financial burden onto residents who are currently paying exorbitant rates for their water services.

5. We call for fair water rates for the residents of Detroit.

6. We call on the city of Detroit to implement the original water affordability program.